Linyuan North report

 North Linyuan April 21 Record investment report (under)
Related Links: Peking University Lin Yuan April 21 Record investment report (I) recalled
1. Bear and bull market investment is not the same , buying stocks is not the same.
Linyuan: the first half told us some idea of investment. The second half, I would like to introduce, we believe the best 20 stocks. our overall fabric array. Our investment approach should be flexible. the first half I already said, my method is that you do at what time this person, we should do under different circumstances, it is changing. I want to talk about look at this market we regard it into a bear market or bull market. In fact, this investment in both cases is not the same as buying the stock bear market and bull market is not the same. so that we can do to make money which also bear market.
bear market to buy what kind of stocks? to buy some uncertainty at the highest level of stock. I bear market in 03 years that I started to buy three stocks. Maotai, Wuliangye, Yunnanbaiyao. we can count to it profits of the next three years the company accounts, stocks and then buy a high certainty. because it is the bull market, bear market, I do not want to say, because do not know where the next wave of one-year bear market. We talk about the bull market. I have a bull market into early to mid-and late. We have to blow the bubble burst before, or where such signs before, how would you avoid this risk.
2. bought the company, the most important criterion is that stocks in a bear market or bull market regardless of whether it is a new high each year.
a stock if the dividend rate is 8%, and future business growth of 15% or more, will not lose out to buy in a bear market just told me, bear the highest certainty is that you do. because the bear market, all stocks are undervalued. you buy those seriously underestimated, can count arrive, the purchase of 12 months will make money. I found that as long as serious undervalued stock, it will be 12 months, the market corrected. What is seriously underestimated? For example, we buy a stock. has a payout rate of 8% if the bear market is over, this is summed up my own .8 %, and its future business growth of 15% or more, I think you buy only the company does not lose. because we considered only 2% of bank deposit interest, if it gives you an annual dividend of 8% sent, at least than the bank higher interest income. So, even though it will fall this year because most of the bear market is down, but when the dividend payout will be high, this company will be high. We bought the company, the most important standard is whether the stock bull market or bear market, whether it be a new high every year. not afraid to buy the wrong, the wrong year to buy it back. is what we can not cover more than 12 months, even if it is you again next year trap, but over the next year, 12 months and some sort of relief. loss to letting you get out of trouble when the dividend, make money. always the chance you have some sort of relief, you can hold the company. we are most afraid of continued to fall, we try to avoid buying companies that can not be high.
3. regardless of the bull market early, middle, end, the most important way to make money is to buy leading stocks.
bull market has a direction, regardless of early, middle, end. It is always a leader. What is leading? led the broader market trend somehow it is always going up, the half-way adjustment may shock, but the general trend is upward. If the bull market continued for several years , the stock is to a new high. Last year I wrote an article, what is the CBBC line if the bull market, I said, if the 15 yuan China Merchants Bank is the dividing line. Why? bear and bull market is very cautious people, so big most people would buy the market value of the company. So it is China Merchants Bank will buy this company.
bear market, this company will be undervalued. underestimate the bull market returned to normal, restoring the normal standard I think it will rise (from the underestimation of the normal 150% increase). At that time we counted 5,6 million China Merchants Bank, rose to 15 yuan if the line just .94 on the market in Shenzhen Development Bank is the lead bull. was just too authentication this point. why I said at the time, China Merchants Bank. in fact lead to rising bull market, that is, can we say throughout the entire bull market of the large hub. It may not only China Merchants Bank stock, but why write it my article? I have my consideration. I first set my standards. Merchants Bank must be the most participants. I do not get involved in fewer people say, I only said that the most important so that people can remember me. So I opened China Merchants Bank's shareholders meeting, said Ma Weihua, you say to rise around 15 yuan, finally confirmed. So there is an opportunistic, you have to make people remember the words. be will tell you, the next three years the stock market will What happens, then you go testing. Otherwise, just say no meaning before.
This is what I just said, the bull market cycle. you apply this method in the bull market in the bear market is not working. Secondly months is not enough you make money fast speed.
how to solve the foreign, in fact, did not write the book in stock. But I do research result, foreign direct Substitution. bear market and bull market of the fund manager is not the same. I am the boss, I'll just put a man in for, do not change the brain has. So this indicates to the bull market and bear market way of thinking should not be the same. bull market we choose a large initial market value of leading shares, As a focused investment.
4. bull market beginning to make a fool I was to do a turtle, whether it ups and downs, all the way to seize the leading shares held.
example, when the bull market early and often CBBC boundaries when you can not judge. up tomorrow or today, it is difficult to judge it in the end is a bull or bear market. because the bear market has rebounded, rising for a while and fell. so we seize the valuation, take it the core of things, I do not wait for it to move up. So the initial bull market, we will seize the leader of this stock, you would be tantamount to seize the bull you think this was the root ribs. I grabbed hold early bull market, I to be a fool, do a tortoise. regardless of ups and downs I made it one of the most stupid people stood.
bull market will be in-depth development. I think the time has come to the medium-term bull market. bull market early to mid, mid- feature is that many stocks will rise. People have forgotten the bear market risk, slowly forgotten. the original will not buy stocks to buy, we will certainly be a buy it up, this is the recovery of prices. bull market is also part of the medium-term The stock will go up. to the stock bull market will end up a lot of it.
5. bull market will rise over small cap stocks large cap stocks, the bull market in addition to the most profitable varieties leading shares, that is, high-quality small cap stocks
bull most stocks rise, I think, one of the leading stocks I said, is to bring the entire bull market, early, mid and late will rise. There is also a small cap is high quality. As I said, why did he choose capital and profits grow at the same time, it was tantamount to my insurance policy. We want to select some small cap, and plate the more likely the smaller the rise. Last year I was in March and April to write, and these two are mentioned at all. because this is international experience, the market for a good, people will forget about the risk, perhaps I would choose some small value. the market value of all easy to buy small, it is easy to rise. but I was not going to speculate, I'll choose some high-quality small cap stocks. which is going through the entire bull market. the ultimate small-cap stocks over large cap stocks will rise. This is what a bull market in stocks rose the most, and bear and bull market of the investment strategy is different.
6. I have the composition of the initial bull market: leading shares accounted for 60-70%. small-cap stocks 15%, the middle piece is a low PE sector accounted for 25-30% of high dividends., to the medium-term bull market, when the proportion of the middle piece reduced, even down to 0%, then increase the input of small-cap stocks.
I mainly bought the initial bull market leading stocks. leading shares my configuration may be accounted for 60-70%. small-cap stocks accounted for 15% I the middle this part, which I think is a bear market must have been underestimated. payout ratio of 10% or more, and I mix 25-30%., which is what we call the composition. the middle of this I always try to keep my life source, do not worry about money. This is my time early in a bear market. If nothing else, you can up the middle this part of the annual dividend had enough of my life. So bear market, bull market, I will always be full warehouse, it will not suffer . I did not short positions a day. unless I want the money, I will no matter what price to sell.
This is the composition of the initial bull market. one is the leading shares, was the middle of a high dividend, high dividend generally In a bull market, it must be very low PE, high dividends. It is a pair of twin brothers, will be linked together. The third block is a high-quality small cap stocks. bear market, I am less busy, and this is my time pass , I'll interview them to write articles. in fact I spend on the surface, in fact, have a good lineup to help me make money.
early bull market people will forget the pain of a bear market. stock market up, most of the time in sleep, up only 5% of the time. So you just get through the difficult bear market, can do something else. Buffett is farming, I went to eat his suffering, go in love. So this pass the time is very important. so you never mind the stock market was.
to medium term, I only do one thing, is to reduce the proportion of the middle piece, and even reduced to 0%, is higher among low-PE dividends this, to shrink. and then to increase investment in small cap stocks. Our decision to do the best small-cap stocks is up, the bull market must be small-cap stocks rose the most. small-cap stocks will give you extra income, so you only need to do this step on it. If you do not pursue another high profits, at least in my lineup, you can share the exponential growth of this wave of bull market. Index rose 130% last year, I was five-fold increase . I have this most stupid way, you do not ask me, after you bought it at least keep up with the index, you will not lag behind the index. In fact in the stock market, most people can not keep indices. Index up how much most people do not keep up with growth and wealth index, index is not easy to keep up. In particular, we now index, it is actually distortion, a large-cap stocks, it is in accordance with the issue price, distortion a lot, most people can not keep up is also very normal. But our approach, such as 12 months can outperform index.
7. bull market is held the most important methods of operation, can not take can not be lot of money, earned a double double would not be called money. I can not buy low, sell high throw, you can do is immortal.
way throughout the bull market. Of course the third in a bull market, my assessment now is bullish medium-term. it is not yet the wildest bull market period. I do not do that predicted at that time, people confused, you follow the confused, make money, but your heart to make it clear, to what position do not participate in the. Next, how come my way is to avoid this risk.
This method of operation is a bull market. bull market is the most important possession, holding the most critical. you buy the stock, take firm. speculation to speculation to you, in fact, a section of the hh is to talk about me throwing buy low, sell high approach. I am the person is actually a fool, other smart people do buy low, sell high throw their trouble, and I to earn their money, I would do the most simple way, I'll take it. I think I buy low, sell high cast can not be done, how can you do it? do is immortal. I have here an example , said earlier that Hong Kong stocks, for several years were dropped from the San Mao San Mao rose five cents. I have a business partner, he does to fifty cents a year are sold, bought San Mao, a total of three years down earned five or six cents. last year sold and buy it back. Every time I met him, he said I was making money. I said, you do what it is, I do not care for him. Finally, I told him, I said, made a 32-fold. he said, or are you OK.
you do such a thing in the stock market when the last time you buy it back, may be behind most of the money when you go, That is the bulk of the total amount of money must be a large head. Just now a lady told me to buy the stock, it should hold, or sell to buy. I said, my idea is this. If you are buy low, the market is good to hold. I eventually sell the stock, certainly not selling the highest point, and I fell down and received the highest point of 30% of the market value if it makes me less than 30% loss, I felt like I was the most successful The .1500,1700 point in this market say that high, but sold at that time, I might as well sell a high point. to make money when the stock must be the most crazy time to let you make money, to make money. earner must have such an experience, can not take can not make big money, earn big money would not be called twice doubled.
8. sold the stock three conditions: the company found a better price; the company is running occurred change; companies do is overrated.
that I should add that when I choose to sell it? one should speak on. you think I have been buying, how to sell? I sold three condition. The first one I always choose the cheapest in the stock market thing, the best price. I now hold the company is not necessarily my opinion, it is not up, and I sell it, I would choose a more cost-effective Yes. The second is the company, operating conditions change. All my life I will invest this is a company, Sichuan Changhong. when I bought after the price cuts that old TV, it's gross margins, and business The situation has changed, trends, once formed. is not to say a month or two changes in the gross profit margin, for example, the company in order to combat competition, to a change occasionally, this does not mean that trend. If it's gross margins decline tendency to form, and we sell the firm. The stock market risk is the risk of the biggest changes in mm margin. This thing I have only met once, then I have to sell Sichuan Changhong.
there is a species is really overrated. The company I feel a hundred years to recover. Just now we eat, it may mean that some students do not understand PE.PE, I explain. If there is no growth in the company, you invest The company many years back to this. This is a concept of time. PE8 times, that is, you invest in this company back to the 8 years, I mean static, it does not increase the case back to the time period of this, of course, this is the shorter the better.
9. we must talk about money within three years in a heavily loaded with up to ten times, twenty times the stock, this person can make a fortune
I do not want to communicate with others, shared their listening do not understand. my life to share, no more than five people. you told him a long time, he did not understand. but I know my people, smart people, you and he said he understood. Some people said to communicate with me. I say you do not communicate, I never communicate with others, I just want you to listen to me. I talk to you does not make sense, the question you asked the question is ridiculous, no way to communicate.
This is the embattled practices. we must talk about money in a Shigekura stock, up to ten times within three years, two times to make a fortune, or even more. Just now they ask me, you can only rise within three years accounts for a to three times. I said I was probably the most conservative, we considered the worst place. we risk lock-out resistance, does not mean I can make three times for three years. I earned three years, it must be big stairs. which I afterwards is considered the most conservative, the stock market will give you zoom in, or to 18 months later, to a year and a half, we all see, this stock will rise. I accounts must be considered the accounts of 36 months. five years off course I would also like to count, but I do not have this level can not count. Therefore operation of the business, I count three is good, and eyes that can see. Operators account for three years, to 18 months, I used to invest in the limit is 18 months must take the money back. So I have invested 18 months must be effective. Although I do three years, but are generally ahead of schedule . But we are racking our brains accounts can not be your own, amplification, we have to prepare for the worst, As a bonus is a bonus, our own requirements to do the worst. so that you can win investment to firm, to hold. bull market, you do not look at it today than you earn, you will go to envy him. No, we have to maintain a peaceful state of mind. We are Hare and the Tortoise. The stock market is because have ups and downs, because there is limit-stock, so I can earn money. If we are to find a good company, and will not bargain, I will make money. I buy must have been underestimated. The stock market will be every day up to the wise man to give up its principles. So we say is important to adhere to principles. I do today, in addition to one-third of the acres of land, others say, I do not listen.
10. What can learn But money is not learn. It is a lot of temptation. I can see, but I could not see people around.
I asked the people around me do not talk about price. Do not give me price that if you go to the door said. in here do not talk about today is up, down, do not say this, you have to overcome your weaknesses of human nature, overcome your weaknesses of human nature, you are on the line, is a corrupt word.
Why do I say that money must not learn. others can learn, science can learn everything, but money is not learn. It is a lot of temptation. I can see, but the people around me not clear, he will compare with, including my parents, my wife, are like this. every day with me in one, she did not know. you speak with her, and she completely or her ideas. Therefore, the overall investment I am the only one thinking clearly. For example, investing in a building, I know that today should buy, how much to buy. In fact all my work done, just need to know two things, one thing is today I have money I need to buy a lot? buy stocks? or the amount of each stock to buy. The latter is more important than the former. So many people ask me what to buy stocks, I think this is secondary, the most important stock How much you buy.
you can predict, for example we say that the stock will rise after three years of 20,30 times. you only buy a hundred shares, it is also painful than jumping off a building. I thought of this, I did not do it to jump out. So how do we do, I never participate in stock trading. and I direct people who have financial dealings, such as my family, my friends, he will not order, and including myself. because I know there is a weakness of human nature. You can do a statistical, it must be random to buy, the end result is the best. throw buy low, sell high is wrong, ten times yes, there are a wrong, may be the last time you did not buy enough volume. So I ask our members must be under the single-and we do not have any economic dealings, it is best to see what the computer will not, do not understand anything, he only knew operation. I will now pick this one. I traded securities are securities the company's employees to do for me, he and I usually do not speak, he gave me action, responsible for giving me orders, buy and sell . that there are skills. You must have such a view, you are not the most intelligent person, let someone else do it. Why? He has no economic interest. you let him buy one million shares, he will give you buy the best buy price, but the number he gave you buy enough. I do not care about a few percent, and ultimately the amount you earn enough, you buy Maotai, how much to buy. It is very important .
it must have a great idea. determines the direction of his approach. This is my practice, I'll tell you. So I bought the stock, the price is usually the day I bought the highest price. maximum I must record the price, and no way, I can not control. but I was the ultimate winner. sold my shares, I believe will be sorry. Just now, he said, the current situation within our bull market, as long as buy low on hold.
11. combined to resolve the investment risks. combination of risk control me you buy the stock fluctuations should not exceed 20%.
If today to give me money, how to combine my ? This is a recognition, and now is high or low, who knows? indeed gone up so many times, how do? This is the next, we speak of the risk of portfolio investment to resolve.
bull market to such an extent that we in the end should buy? how to buy? this time, the cumulative increase in big, some things should not be according to the purchase price is bought. I was a full warehouse, I do not have to worry about, I just hold on it. I do not know the level of the stock market, anyway, I am full of stores, I went back to bed. This is my most basic method of operation.
me how you want the money to buy? For example, I now have financial management, he Give me a million today, and I what to buy. this thing is to have planning. First of all I would like to keep track of the market, there is always underestimated. ultimately to the enterprise accounts. For example, I made last month, the trust, I will Expressway combination of 30%. because I forget, the highway between the PE is 15-18 times, I think this price is not high. Why not higher? that we have a theoretical support. the world's listed companies outside the highway PE is 35 times more. it has not China's growth good. national highway, I figured it's growth in more than 18%. because the automobile industry, I am very optimistic. Because we now look less than the automotive industry have good business, it does not come out. I think that China's automobile industry, local companies should come out some good, even after some years there are well-known companies around the world, I believe that the direction of automotive magnate can not be wrong, the house is the Chinese people to buy a car, the largest consumer. I'm optimistic about the automotive industry. But I automobile manufacturing, it is very powerful competition, came out to see signs and are not allowed, so we bought highway. car more to foot. because the direction can not go wrong, the highway that it has a very high threshold, you are a highway, then the general recycling, all the highway I did research, the current market value is only a highway reconstruction quarter. For example, according to the current market value of the highway to buy them. Now you want to build a highway to spend four times the same price. So if you want one and you recycling the same highway, it must be loss, and it is not accounting. because the land, the cost went up, he four times, why should I build it yourself? so I will as a key highway.
and we chose the next three years, banks industry, tourism companies, and its rapid growth, then more than 30%, this growth will be down by PE. This combination of subtle, so I am not afraid to buy high, I dares to buy, buy then I can hold three years, should not the loss. so how to solve this problem is through the combination to control the amount of risk.
Even though this great city will fall, but some do not stock the market will fall down. because I did a long time, I know that the market falls, hand, the stock will not fall. I do a combination. I have this combination, there can be up, so it will balance, so my stock volatility risk control in your time to buy, no more than 20%. For example, you buy shares of a million dollars, the biggest risk is that we can withstand the volatility of 20%. So, when we buy, as I am a designer I will design better. high , I probably give it to be a balance. This is very effective.
12. shareholding for three years I can resist any broader market risk. because I forget the accounts of the company for three years.
may I would not do such a bear market, we focus on it because it is very cheap things, sooner or later will make money. But to this position I do. That does not mean we are now the stock market higher. I even had an illusion, maybe after a few years, this position is a starting position. This I do judge, I just said, I can withstand the broader market shares for three years any of the risk. I forget the company's account, for example, The highway to the 2009 PE has fallen to 10 times. That is not growth scenario, you invest in this company for 10 years, 8 years will be recovered. I remember in 2001 when I bought Ninghugaosu, when its PE is 15,16 times. Finally, I bought three years, it is 9% more than three years of growth, 18 months, let me make several times, so this account are we to are not afraid. Now This highway is the case, including bank shares. as China Merchants Bank, bought last year, I can invest 50%, 50% of the money I can buy this stock, now I only need to invest 20% or 30%, I put it the amount of reduction, which on risk control. This is a balanced portfolio, risk to lock out.
13. Now do not speak the valuation, and this is the greatest risk. any time valuation of the straitjacket in my mind.
this lineup, then how do we do asset allocation. My strength is asset allocation, this is my best. Many people say why do I have to leave the stock market bear market, in fact, I do not know . Every time a bear market, do I have other activities in the stock market, then I have to exit the stock market. I said, full of stores, may I went to go buy another cheap market. But why would I leave the stock market bear market? I went through about three bear market. three times out I have a bear market. Then, after a thought, I think I did this is an art form. actually I was also confused, I do not know, I just through asset allocation. today I ask I get 10% or even 20,30% of the funds I went to another market to cheap things, and I also do this work today, I started last month, is doing the work.
such as outside markets, such as a company listed in Hong Kong, but also domestic companies. because I am a long track, I know it this cheap, cheap in this position, I will buy it back. I will be intentional, unintentional withdrawal of part of the funds to do this matter. This is my asset allocation. I am in this market, I will find to make money. I bought it must be to make money, this is the place I bought did not risk. I'll put my assets, to configure on this part. but inside there is a risk that most people that he can not, because he knew not to buy cheap.
example, we present B shares, B shares of some investment value is very , but we will not buy. Why not buy? is because the fall and rise of this market make people forget the discipline and valuation. Now do not speak the valuation, and this is the greatest risk. any time estimate value of the magic spell in my head.
14. I do every three years, a large asset allocation.
I forced my 12-month period, 30% of my asset allocation to the A-share market away. I counted 30% of the accounts that have at least five times the assets of the next three years, three years later, it included 30% of the principal amount equivalent to the benefits I am now 150% of total assets. even if I lose 70% of all finished, I still sufficient to guarantee that 150% of my money is growing.
I forced my 12-month period, 30% of my assets to do some configuration 03 years I sold in Hong Kong, a Tong Ren Tang Technologies . when I sell is 17 million, sold after I bought the Maotai. earlier Tong Ren Tang Technologies into more than 12, I buy them back, this year's results I expect it 1.2.08 I give it counted on PE8 times. Tongrentang I figured it would not gnaw three years, and I just went and did the turtle. because I do not greed, A-share market must be the best in the world to make money now, because it is a bull market. It must here is able to rise. But I'm already done, for example, how many years I think the next thing, I forced myself to do 30% in the next 12 months, I will do my money out of the Tong Ren Tang Technologies, well Ya I did some time ago have been doing this asset allocation. I do not want it brought me much this year, in return, it just will not let me lose a lot of money, I move along in it. It seems to be a conditioned reflex the.
15. defeat in 2001 is one of the bear market know-how 97 years have begun to make asset allocation A
outside the stock market actually began in 2001 when the bear market, when I was 97 or 96 years have to do this work. I also force myself to dry, this big asset allocation is very important. So I say to our customers, you join our team, I tell you not only how to operate the stock, to tell you the weaknesses of human nature I develop slowly, so you do not fear the stock market. Do not you think there is a risk in the stock market. You are not afraid of the stock market will be held, will make money. There is also a key time, I will give you asset allocation, key when I will tell you what risks the company may exist, what measures we should take. does not mean I can sell the stock up, I sold the stock to be able to rise still more. but we earn a reasonable We know that money. The asset allocation, like a war in the essential elements. although I asked for 12 months is 30%, but I predict that these companies, I have calculated the account and have at least five times the next five years. V. times considered a rising, 30% up to five times, then the algorithm as I can to it, three years later, it included 30% of the principal amount equivalent to the benefits I am now 150% of total assets. even if this 70% I After all the losses, I still sufficient to guarantee that 150% of my money is growing. This is what I do every three years, a large configuration. unless it is a bear market. my first three years of bear market strategy is better, I'll buy Mancang , waiting for it. Now I made a lot of money, I consider this talent. But I'm still A majority of shares. I'm not going to worry about, I'll do such a distribution of assets, on the line. it brings benefit is people talking about the East West light does not shine, it is enough. it can lock up my profits now. my approach is not missed so many years.
While short-term is also wrong, for example, I was in the Sichuan Changhong sold, I do not buy up the highway, Sichuan Changhong also straining up. My brother said, I knew not to sell the Sichuan Changhong. but after a few years, a comparison of the results is not the same. when I Sell a highway, bought a Maotai is Maotai fell 20 from 27, the highway straining up, and now the results of Maotai up 20 times, of course, Jiangsu Expressway also rose. so asset allocation is the way you risk of lock, which is linked to, the risk of deadlock, you create more profit, it is very important.
16. the stock market is another recipe I make money. Over the past year I have almost every year risk-free sets Lee.
then I say, the stock market I have another trick to make money. Over the past year I have almost every year risk-free arbitrage. riskless arbitrage accounted for 40% of my total assets. I am afraid of risk, risk-free arbitrage is so that we can easily make money. For example, I give you some examples. just said Merchants Bank bonds, is 102 yuan. because its issue price is 100 yuan, we need only four years, China Merchants Bank is not to judge closed down, I should be making money. So I went to borrow money to buy investment bank bonds. Wuliangye shares at six, put warrant exercise price of seven dollars. Wuliangye less than seven dollars Wuliangye Group repurchase, as well as bank guarantees . I want to make you the money. those few days I'll borrow money to buy Wuliangye firm, we all know, put a card is more than seven, but it did not participate. I was still in the the article, I say you buy now will not suffer. Wuliangye more than 30 pieces a year. The story, I and Wang in May to ...